Derbyshire and Essex have never played one another in T20 cricket, meaning that any player-on-player match-ups that the captains devise with rely as much on the franchise circuit and player types as individual battles from seasons past. Here is where the game will be won and lost...
Ravi vs Ravi
Ravi Bopara has been a reluctant No. 6 for Essex, but has been outstandingly good in the death overs this season. Before the start of the 16th over, he has scored 15 off 20 balls against seamers and 30 off 31 against the spinners; after, he has a superhuman 148 runs off 70 balls against pace and a Liam Livingstone-boosted 35 off 13 balls against spin.
The positive news for Derbyshire is that in Ravi Rampaul, they have the competition's best death bowler. Rampaul's 126 balls at the death have yielded just 142 runs this season, giving him the best economy rate of anyone with more than four overs in that phase; throw in a tournament-best 14 wickets in the final five, and it is evident that he will hold the key for them.
The key for Derbyshire, then, is to get Bopara early - or ideally, after he has chewed up 12 or 15 balls, but before his conversion from middle-over nudger to death-over superstar; Rampaul should be well-equipped to deal with the rest, but in Bopara he may meet his match.
How do you bowl at Dan Lawrence?
Dan Lawrence has a reputation as a brilliant player of spin, and there are only a few clues from his record this season as to how to bowl to him.
His scoring rates against seam and spin in the middle overs are almost identical (9.36 and 9.34 runs per over respectively); though his five dismissals against slow bowlers at that stage suggest it is worth turning to legspinner Matt Critchley as an attacking option.
One spinner or two?
Adam Zampa's return to Australia to play in the domestic 50-over competition leaves Essex with only Simon Harmer as a frontline spin option, with Aron Nijjar - a 24-year-old slow left-armer, with one career T20 to his name - the likely second-choice option outside of the part-timers.
But with Wayne Madsen the key man for Derbyshire, it is worth considering whether Nijjar is worth picking simply for the angle he offers. Madsen's Blast record against both pace and spin is remarkable, as you would expect for a man striking at just short of 150 with an average of 49.66.
The key is to get him in early - he scores relatively slowly against pace in the powerplay - but with a relatively conservative scoring rate against left-arm spin (8.40 runs per over in the Blast since 2017) compared to right-arm spin (9.79), right-arm seam (9.40), or left-arm seam (9.37) in the middle overs, captain Harmer might be tempted to turn to Nijjar as a specialist Madsen-getter.
Harmer's difficult hand
With his two overseas players - Zampa and Mohammad Amir - both missing, Harmer faces an almost-impossible situation in terms of working out who to bowl when.
Only Bopara has an economy rate for the tournament below nine out of the options available, and it may well be a case of damage-limitation with the ball.
The crucial consideration will be the need to attack. Only three teams (all of them eliminated) have scored more slowly at the death than Derbyshire in the competition, and their top four have scored an enormous 79 percent of their runs off the bat this season. It is trite to suggest early wickets will be key, but in this case it is also true.
Harmer might then consider bowling Matt Quinn in the powerplay. Quinn has been in and out of the side, and is expensive in the first six (economy rate 9.75) but has also taken five wickets in his eight powerplay overs. He represents a high-risk option, but as underdogs, Essex might feel the need to gamble.
Bopara has also been a banker in the first six - 24 balls, 24 runs conceded, three wickets - while Harmer himself has excelled at the death (economy rate 7.41). Shuffling his underwhelming pack is not an enviable task, but all three are options that the skipper should consider.
